China’s construction boom in the Spratlys
What’s changed as a result of China’s massive construction projects in the Spratly islands? Legally – nothing – but strategically – we wait and see. All the features that the PRC occupies in the Spratlys would be naturally underwater at high tide, so building on them, doesn’t mean they will count as ‘territory’ under international […]
China’s Epic Fail in the South China Sea
By whatever metric you choose, China’s recent oil-drilling adventure in the South China Sea was a disaster. No new oil will reach Chinese consumers, no new maritime territory has been gained and regional advantage has been handed to the United States. ASEAN solidarity has held firm and the positions of ‘pro-Beijing’ forces in […]
China’s false memory syndrome
The nationalist academics and government committees of the first half of the 20th century have bequeathed the Communist Party an “official history” that is demonstrably false. It is this, and not the threat of nationalist mobs on the streets that makes the South China Sea disputes so intractable and dangerous. But to concede […]
Clashes and artificial islands, BBC interview
An interview for BBC World News about developments in the South China Sea – particularly the release by the Vietnamese government of video showing a Chinese ship chasing and sinking a Vietnamese fishing vessel and allegations from the Philippines government that China is constructing new artificial islands in the Spratlys. The interviewer is Kasia […]
China incompetent? The tale of the oil rig
What has China achieved by sending its oil rig to drill off the Paracel Islands? It has managed to rupture relations with its brother communists in Vietnam, incensed Vietnamese popular opinion, generated gigabytes of critical international media coverage, revived the “China Threat” discourse in Southeast Asia and unified ASEAN […]
Vietnam’s protests aren’t just about China
Dramatic images of Vietnamese workers vandalising Chinese-owned factories appear to be yet more proof that an angry nationalism is taking hold in East and South East Asia. The reality is a little more complex. Although passions are certainly rising over the fate of a few specks of rock in the […]
China-Vietnam clash – interview for BBC World
Why has China sent an oil rig, guarded by a flotilla of ships, into disputed waters near the Paracel Islands and sparked a confrontation with Vietnam just days before a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)? An interview explaining the background for BBC World’s Newsday programme. Link […]
Talks at University of the Philippines
A copy of my presentation on the origin of the U-shaped-line can be found here. I gave two presentations at the Asian Center of the University of the Philippines – Diliman on Friday 25th April 2014. Around a hundred staff, students and members of the public were there. I was honoured by the attendance […]
China, the media and the search for MH370
An article for the CSIS CogitAsia blog on how the search for the missing Malaysian airliner has demonstrated the capabilities gap between China and the US and its allies but also how a combination of US operational secrecy and China’s developing public diplomacy has concealed the extent of that gap leaving a misleading impression […]
China’s priorities in the search for MH370
An article on The Diplomat about the China Coast Guard’s decision to prioritise its blockade of the Philippines garrison on the Second Thomas Shoal over the hunt for the missing airliner Flight MH370. I argue that, had the airliner crashed in the South China Sea, the decision not to redeploy those Coast Guard ships could […]